Wind Speed Forecasting Using Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks in North of Iran
نویسندگان
چکیده
In recent years, wind power generation is rapidly gaining popularity due to the major concerns about the excessive emissions and global energy crisis. In addition, this kind of power systems have shown more security options than others. Due to the highly variable and intermittent nature of the wind energy, it is crucial to achieve higher accuracy of long-term wind speed forecasts for improving the reliability and economic feasibility of power systems. The forecasting is the best standard for comparing the of algorithm with current analytical methods. By importing the intelligent algorithms, we can overcome the obstacles of prediction and eliminate the volume of which are the main problems of determining the uncertainty nature of such renewable energy systems. Hence, this paper proposes a novel methodology for long-term wind speed forecasting using back propagation artificial neural network. The neural networks are powerful tools for solving the complex problems and providing tolerable standpoint from distributed energies. Simulation result illuminates that the proposed algorithm can offer highly features of compatibility and accuracy for wind predictions in comparison with actual wind speed reports of Iran Meteorological Organization. © 2017 Journal of Energy Management and Technology
منابع مشابه
Hourly Wind Speed Prediction using ARMA Model and Artificial Neural Networks
In this paper, a comparison study is presented on artificial intelligence and time series models in 1-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting. Three types of typical neural networks, namely adaptive linear element, multilayer perceptrons, and radial basis function, and ARMA time series model are investigated. The wind speed data used are the hourly mean wind speed data collected at Binalood site in I...
متن کاملForecasting of Wind Speed Using Artificial Neural Networks
Wind speed forecast is essential in wind energy conversion system and may fail to operate power plant at non optimal region if not properly forecasted. This paper focuses the short term wind speed forecasting using conventional statistical method and artificial neural networks such as back propagation network (BPN), generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and radial basis function networks...
متن کاملShort-term and Medium-term Gas Demand Load Forecasting by Neural Networks
The ability of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for estimating the natural gas demand load for the next day and month of the populated cities has shown to be a real concern. As the most applicable network, the ANN with multi-layer back propagation perceptrons is used to approximate functions. Throughout the current work, the daily effective temperature is determined, and then the weather data w...
متن کاملEvaluation the efficiency of using Artificial Neural Networks in predicting meteorological droughts in north-west of Iran
Drought is one of the most destructive natural disasters in human societies that cause irreparable impacts on agriculture, environment, society and economics. So, awareness of occurrence of droughts can be effective in reducing losses. In this study, in order to modeling and forecasting drought severity in a 37 year time period (1971-2007) in 21 meteorological stations, located in the cold semi...
متن کاملApplication of Two Methods of Artificial Neural Network MLP, RBF for Estimation of Wind of Sediments (Case Study: Korsya of Darab Plain)
The lack of sediment gauging stations in the process of wind erosion, caused of estimate of sediment be process of necessary and important. Artificial neural networks can be used as an efficient and effective of tool to estimate and simulate sediments. In this paper two model multi-layer perceptron neural networks and radial neural network was used to estimate the amount of sediment in Korsya o...
متن کامل